Hearing Of The House Armed Services Committee- The Report Of The Congressional Commission On The Strategic Posture Of The United States

Statement

Hearing Of The House Armed Services Committee- The Report Of The Congressional Commission On The Strategic Posture Of The United States

Witnesses: William Perry, Chairman, The Congressional Commission On The Strategic Posture Of The United States; James Schlesinger, Vice Chairman, The Congressional Commission On The Strategic Posture Of The United States

Chaired By: Rep. John Spratt

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REP. SPRATT: I call the committee meeting to order and welcome everyone here. Chairman Skelton unfortunately is not able to be here, but I am pleased to have the opportunity to chair this important hearing in his place instead.

Led by the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, which is ably chaired by Ellen Tauscher, this committee has a long tradition of attention to the United States's strategic posture, and to nuclear weapons policy in particular.

The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2008 called for the establishment of a commission, congressionally appointed bipartisan commission, to analyze and make recommendations on our strategic posture.

I am pleased to welcome the commission chairman and vice chairman and other members of the commission, and in particular Bill Perry and Jim Schlesinger, to the hearing today. You all, all of you, deserve enormous credit for bringing this hearing, this investigative process, to the conclusion you have in the reports you filed today.

Your interim report you released last December. I agree with your broad definition of strategic posture and the priority you place on dealing with the most urgent post-Cold War threat, what you termed in that report "catastrophic terrorism."

You went on to write or say, and I quote, "A terror group cannot make a nuclear bomb from scratch, so the best defense against this threat is to prevent terror groups from acquiring a nuclear bomb or the fissile material from which they could perhaps make a bomb." I've been making this argument since the demise of the Soviet Union, and I commend you for emphasizing it in your interim report.

I've not yet had a chance to read your report in its entirety, but I can see that it places our most pressing strategic challenges in the right context.

My friend and colleague, Ellen Tauscher, was the driving force behind the legislation that set up this commission. I want to yield to her now for the opening remarks -- any opening remarks she may care to make.

Ms. Tauscher.

REP. ELLEN TAUSCHER (D-CA): Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and good afternoon to everyone.

This hearing will cover very important ground. Led by the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, which I have the privilege of chairing, the House Armed Services Committee has long called for a vigorous and open debate on the future direction of the United States strategic posture and a fresh examination of our nuclear weapons policy.

In the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2008, which the House approved almost exactly two years ago, we created a congressionally appointed bipartisan commission to analyze and make recommendations on the United States strategic posture.

The commission was designed to foster and frame the debate on these critical issues. It was also designed to help forge a consensus on the United States nuclear weapons policy that has been lacking for too long.

It was with great pride and anticipation that, just 14 months ago, this committee and the Senate Armed Services Committee announced the names of the 12 individuals who agreed to serve on the commission. I see several of the commissioners here, and I want to thank each and every one of you for your service.

I am most delighted to welcome the commission chairman and vice chairman, Dr. William Perry and Dr. James Schlesinger, to this hearing. I also want to praise the United States Institute of Peace, its president, Richard Solomon, and Paul Hughes, the commission's executive director, for their vision, hard work, and shepherding of the commission's final product and the publishing of the final report.

I'd also like to thank Secretary Gates and the Strategic Systems Program of the Navy, where we were able to get the funding for this very, very important commission. As you know, forming commissions is the part-time job of the Congress. Finding the money is the very, very difficult job of the Congress. And without Secretary Gates and the Navy coming forward, we would not have the final product that we have today.

Dr. Perry and Dr. Schlesinger, both of you have brought a great wealth of experience and expertise, and your service to the country of many decades. And it could not be more timely or more important for this work to be done now.

As the commission noted in both its interim and final reports, what the United States does with its nuclear weapons and how it does it is linked to our ability to dissuade other nations from pursuing nuclear weapons and to our efforts to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and nuclear weapons.

Of course, other nations will continue to make their own decisions about whether to pursue nuclear weapons for many reasons. As the commission has noted, as long as there are nuclear weapons, the United States must maintain a strong, safe, secure and reliable nuclear deterrent. But as you have also said, how we maintain and manage our nuclear arsenal directly impacts how credible we can be when pressing for nonproliferation.

We are committed, under Article 6 of the Nonproliferation Treaty, to work in good faith toward nuclear disarmament. Both President Obama and Russian President Medvedev have recently reaffirmed this pledge.

So the question we basically put before the Strategic Posture Commission was, how do we craft a nuclear weapons strategy that balances these fundamental challenges? How do we maintain an effective and credible deterrent while trying to reduce our nuclear arsenal and persuade other nations not to pursue nuclear weapons?

Each of you has spoken eloquently about this need for balance in your testimony, and the commission's final report reflects that challenge as well.

Dr. Schlesinger, I appreciate your emphasis on stabilizing the effective and nonproliferation benefits that accrue from the extended deterrence we provide our allies. And Dr. Perry, I am grateful for your forceful observations about the urgency of our efforts to stem the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Let me recite a part of your testimony, Dr. Perry, and I quote: "All commissioners accept the view that the United States must support programs that are both (lead ?) and (hedged ?); that is, programs that move in two parallel paths, one path that protects our security by maintaining deterrence, and the other which protects our security by reducing the danger of nuclear weapons."

That is at the heart of the matter. I want to commend you all for your leadership in steering the commission to consensus.

Thank you again for your work and for being here today. I agree with you, Dr. Perry, that we are at a moment of both opportunity and urgency, and I look forward to a good discussion. Congratulations to you all.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for the time, and I yield back.

REP. SPRATT: Thank you, Ms. Tauscher.

Let me turn now to the distinguished ranking member, Mr. McHugh, for his opening remarks.

REP. JOHN MCHUGH (R-NY): I thank the chairman.

I certainly want to begin by adding my words of welcome to two most venerable witnesses. And we are deeply blessed to have both Dr. Perry and Dr. Schlesinger, sage national security and foreign policy experts, with us here today with such long and distinguished histories of public service.

And joining these two gentlemen, as has been noted, on the commission are 10 other extremely accomplished individuals. And we are fortunate, as both a committee and as a nation, to have the service of these great people on what has certainly been a long- standing and repeatedly difficult and complex task.

It goes without saying that the report before us is thoughtful and it is thorough. And I want to add my words, Mr. Chairman, to yours of appreciation to our strategic force chair, Ms. Tauscher, and the ranking member, the gentleman from Ohio, Mr. Turner, for their great work. They asked for recommendations as to the most appropriate strategic posture and the most effective nuclear weapons strategy for the United States, and I think this great commission has really set the stage for delving into those answers.

I expected, when this all began, widely divergent views on such matters of nuclear weapons and the policy associated therewith. However, it's, to say the least, unusual, and I would note highly refreshing, to learn that this commission, embodied as it is of 12 thoughtful individuals, could achieve bipartisan consensus on these issues. And I said to Dr. Perry before the hearing, perhaps they could give us here in this Congress some lessons on how to come and to work together.

I am, most of all, hopeful that the administration, working with Congress on both sides of the aisle, can now build upon this bipartisan momentum as it works to define its nuclear policies and posture in the future.

The report highlights some basic truths and realities. First and foremost, it reaffirms the need for the United States to maintain a nuclear deterrent capability to deter potential adversaries and, equally important, to reassure our allies who would depend upon our nuclear umbrella, and as a result, forsake developing their own nuclear arsenals.

One month ago, the president delivered a speech in Prague calling for a world without nuclear weapons. But as the commission rightfully noted in its interim report, no less than a fundamental transformation in the world political order will be required to attain a goal of zero. While no president has wanted nuclear weapons, all came to the stark realization that possessing them was necessary as long as others had sought or had them in their possession.

In a speech last fall, Secretary Gates observed, try as we might and hope as we will the power of nuclear weapons and their strategic impact is a genie that cannot be put back in the bottle, at least for a very long time.

While the president's long term vision is laudable I fear it's -- (inaudible) -- may be a distraction from the near term nuclear security and proliferation challenges faced by our nation and the international community. These challenges are multifaceted and start with how we bring an end to the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, two efforts that, at least in my view, pose a real and an immediate threat.

A month ago when, perhaps coincidentally, on the same day as President Obama's speech, North Korea launched its satellite atop a long range Taepodong II ballistic missile, ignoring all international warnings. According to recent reports, some in the administration expect that nation to conduct yet another nuclear test.

In the meantime, Iran continues to perfect its assortment of long range missiles and pursue key elements of the potential nuclear weapons capability despite UN Security Council efforts.

As the report before us observes, unless these programs are halted, and I quote, "there's likely to be a proliferation cascade that would greatly increase the risks of nuclear use and terrorism" end quote.

We're also faced with the challenge of securing nuclear materials and facilities worldwide, implementing safeguards into civilian nuclear programs to prevent breakout weapon capability and preventing terrorist groups from acquiring a nuclear bomb, weapons design, or fissile material.

Both Russia and China are modernizing their strategic forces program and as this report points out, ironically, our edge in conventional capabilities has induced the Russians to increase their reliance on both tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.

A credible and reliable U.S. nuclear deterrent will be required in the foreseeable future. However, senior government officials and many outside experts have expressed concern about our stockpile's long term condition and the confidence that many have in that stockpile and its supporting infrastructure.

The commander of the U.S. strategic command testified this spring, the most urgent concerns for today's nuclear enterprise lie with our aging stockpile, infrastructure, and human capital.

To that end, I believe we need a program to modernize our stockpile and infrastructure. Now I want to be clear, I'm not calling for new weapons capabilities. However, I believe there are prudent steps we can, we must take to introduce greater reliability, safety, and security features into our arsenal and thus create conditions for maintaining a highly reliable deterrent with fewer warheads.

Furthermore, we should insist on conscious efforts to strengthen the U.S. nuclear infrastructure, support investments in stockpile stewardship, and sustain our exceptional scientific engineering and production workforce.

What I find worrisome in this evolving nuclear policy is that they result almost entirely on treaties and arms control measures. The previous administration wrongly in my view appeared to have an aversion to arms control. I believe it's a valuable tool that must be practical, verifiable, and enforceable.

Furthermore, actions taken to decrease our nuclear forces should be counterbalanced by other means to strengthen our security and that of our allies. Missile defenses, advanced conventional capabilities, unconventional capabilities, intelligence, nonproliferation, and other aspects of the comprehensive strategic posture strategy.

Lastly, Secretary Gates warned we cannot predict the future. That uncertainty cannot be underestimated as we weigh the nuclear policy and posture decisions ahead of us.

The commission has given us much to consider. I want to thank them again and I look forward to the testimony. And with that, Mr. Chairman, if I may, I'll yield back the balance of my time.

REP. SPRATT: Dr. Schlesinger, Dr. Perry the floor is now yours. Once again, thank you for the effort all of you put into this report. Your written testimony has been received. We'll make it without objection part of the record so that you can summarize as you see fit. We welcome you to make full statement of the positions that are taken in the report.

By arrangement I believe Dr. Perry we'll begin with you. The floor is yours, sir. Thank you again for coming.

MR. PERRY: Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.

When the Congress formed this commission it formed it deliberately and consciously as a bipartisan panel and we have functioned as such. At our very first meeting Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher came out to join us and urged us to come forward in spite of the fact that we are contentious -- bipartisan groups to come forward with a consensus report. Easy for her to say but very difficult to execute. Nevertheless, we have come surprisingly close to that as you will see in reading the report.

I'm going to use my time, Mr. Chairman, by trying to relate some of the major findings in our report to what I perceive to be the administration's emerging strategic policy. And I base this judgment primarily on statements and speeches made by President Obama.

First of all, he has said that the world, the country, indeed the world, faces a new threat; nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. But at the same time we need to hedge against a possible resurgence of the old threat. The commission firmly agrees with that judgment.

Secondly, he said that the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the NPT, is critical in dealing with this new threat. The United States should work to strengthen the NPT and it should agree to put more resources into the arm of the NPT dealing with inspection and enforcement here at the International Atomic Energy Agency. The commission agrees with the judgment as well.

Third, he has said that we should, in order to get success in preventing proliferation, we need the effort of all nations and to get their full cooperation entails that the United States and other nuclear powers made progress in disarmament. I agree fully with that judgment. The commission members have different views on the extent to which our progress in disarmament and getting that full cooperation is really coupled together. Some of us think it's coupled quite closely. I'm of that view. And others think the coupling is quite loose.

Now fourth, the president made a very clear statement in his speech in Prague that United States seeks a world without nuclear weapons and therefore, we should be reducing the number and the salience of our nuclear weapons.

But, he went on to say, as long as nuclear weapons exist it'll be important for the United States to maintain safe, secure, reliable, and credible deterrent forces. I strongly agree with that full statement.

Some of our members do not agree that we should be seeking a world without nuclear weapons or that it's even feasible to do that. But even those members fully support the part of the statement dealing with maintaining a safe, secure, and reliable deterrent. And they also support reduction in the numbers, provided that reduction is done bilaterally.

Fifth, the president is seeking new treaties; the StAR Treaty, the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, and seeking to ratify the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty. These, our commissioners agree, with the goal of moving for a new Follow On Star Treaty and we offer some comment in the report about how that might be done.

We also agree that seeking a fissile material cut off treaty is desirable.

On the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty ratification, I strongly agree with that move. Indeed, I believe that the U.S. will not be able to assume leadership in the world if we do not actually make that ratification.

But I must say that the commission is split by that issue. About half of our members disagree with the goal of ratifying the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty and indeed, if the Senate proceeds to hold hearings on that I suspect some of our members may be testifying on one side of the issue and others testifying on the other side.

All of us, however, agree that there's certain steps the administration should take before they submit the treaty for ratification, most importantly to get a clarification among the P5 as to exactly what is banned by the Test-Ban Treaty. There seems to be some ambiguity on that today.

The sixth issue was missile defense. The president says he wants to move forward on the European missile defense system as long as Iranian threat persists. And he also said he wants to seek a way to find cooperation on that with the Russians. The commission agrees on both of those goals. I must say that our commissioner have a wide variety of views on the value and importance of missile defense. But on those two issues at least on missile defense we were able to reach an agreement.

Seven, on civilian nuclear programs the president has argued that we should get, and propose programs, to get the loose fissile material under control and stated that we need a new international framework to discourage the spread of enrichment and processing in the civilian nuclear field. We strongly agree with both of those conclusions.

And finally, the president has said we should roll back North Korean nuclear program and prevent Iran from getting nuclear. The Six-Party Talks have failed to stop the North Koreans from building and testing the nuclear bomb, and the compliance with the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty is in tatters. The president has argued there must be consequences on the NPT and we firmly agree with that. We do not offer him or you advice on how to achieve those goals, but quite clearly, those are very important goals.

Now, beyond commenting to you on these policy issues, I wanted to make some -- highlight some specific recommendations we made on how to sustain the nuclear force, particularly how to sustain this force in the face of American policy (to no ?) testing, no design of weapons with new capabilities, and with the budget limitations that have been -- (inaudible). Those -- under those three limitations it's a challenge to sustain this nuclear deterrence.

The key to that, I believe -- indeed, all of our members believe -- is the strength of the nuclear weapons laboratories. They have -- we are blessed in that they have outstanding technical staffs at these laboratories and they have had remarkable success in what's called the Stockpile Stewardship Program and the Life Extension Program. But as our weapons age, it's going to be harder and harder to sustain that success.

Inexplicably, I believe, our government has responded to that growing problem by cutting the staff at the weapons laboratories. We believe that that trend should be reversed and -- and indeed beyond that that the -- we should add responsibilities to the laboratories for other important national security programs. For example, programs in (energy use ?) technologies -- programs in supporting our nuclear intelligence assessments, and even more broadly, programs in research that have the effect making a research lab -- national research laboratory (out of our ?) three weapons laboratories.

If this is done, we believe it will be important to change the names of the laboratories. They're not just weapons laboratories but they are national security laboratories, and they should be renamed and they should be funded accordingly. We have a unique national asset in these -- in these weapon laboratories and we should be treating it accordingly.

Now, if that is done they need to be given more freedom of action appropriate with that new mission and we need to also to look at their direction which is the NNSA, to whom the laboratories report. They were -- NNSA was created by Congress some years ago on the view that they would be able to provide that direction but they have not had full success in doing that. We believe that the NNSA should have more autonomy of action than it has today and that it should be restructured so that it reports to the president through the secretary of energy -- (inaudible) -- the present reporting arrangements.

The -- I'd like to conclude my comments by looking briefly ahead. Our future world out there is heading in the direction today in a very dangerous direction. There's the danger that we're going to have a collapse of the nonproliferation regime, the danger that there will be a cascade of proliferation in the world, particularly if Iran succeeds in going nuclear, and that both of those we'll increase substantially the risk of nuclear terrorism. And there's the danger that the nuclear powers in the world will renew their nuclear competition.

All three of those dangers are facing us right now quite seriously. But there's also a more hopeful future out there and that we will be able to contain the proliferation, that we will be able to stymie nuclear terrorism, and the nuclear powers instead of competing in the nuclear field will learn how to cooperate in that field. Our report tries to describe for you a strategy which leads toward that more hopeful future than the dangerous world (we have described ?). Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.

REP. SPRATT: Thank you, Dr. Perry, and Dr. Schlesinger, the floor is yours. We welcome your statement.

MR. SCHLESINGER: Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Mr. McHugh.

REP. SPRATT: Dr. Schlesinger, could you pull the microphone up?

MR. SCHLESINGER: Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Mr. McHugh, and Ms. Tauscher, our godmother. The Congress established the Commission on Strategic Posture in order to provide recommendations regarding the appropriate posture for the United States under the changed conditions of the early 20th century -- 21st century. The appointed commission has represented a wide range of the political spectrum and have had quite diverse judgments on these matters.

Nonetheless, urged by members of Congress, not the least of whom was Ms. Tauscher, the commission has sought to develop a consensus view. To a large and, to some, an astonishing degree, we have succeeded. Secretary Perry and I are here to present that consensus to this committee. We are, of course, indebted to the committee for this opportunity to present these recommendations.

For over half a century, the U.S. strategic policy has been driven by two critical elements -- to maintain a deterrent that prevents attacks on the United States, its interests, and notably, its allies, and to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The end of the Cold War and particularly the collapse of the Soviet Union- Warsaw Pact, along with the substantial edge that the United States has now developed in conventional military capabilities, have permitted this country sharply to reduce our reliance on nuclear weapons, radically to reduce our nuclear forces, and to move away from a doctrine of nuclear initiation to a new stance of nuclear response only under extreme circumstances of major attack on the United States or its allies.

On the other hand, the growing availability of nuclear technology along with a relaxation of the constraints of the Cold War have obliged us to turn increasing attention to the problem of nonproliferation, and in particular, to the possibility of a terrorist attack on the United States. Secretary Perry has just spoken on the diplomatic issues and the problems of arms control, (for ?) preventing proliferation, and the risks of nuclear terrorism.

I, for my part, will focus on the need, despite (its ?) substantially shrunken in the post-Cold War world, to maintain a deterrent reduced in size yet nonetheless reliable and secure, and sufficiently impressive and visible to provide assurance to the 30-odd nations that are protected under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Since the early days of NATO, the United States has provided extended deterrence for its allies.

That has proved a far more demanding task than the protection of the United States itself. In the past, that has required a deterrent sufficiently large and sophisticated to deter a conventional attack by the Soviet Union-Warsaw Pact. It also meant that the United States discourages the development of national nuclear capabilities, particularly during the Kennedy administration, both to prevent proliferation and to avoid the diversion of resources away from the development of conventional allied capabilities.

With the end of the Cold War and the achievement of U.S. preponderance in conventional capabilities, the need for so substantial a deterrent largely disappeared. Nonetheless, the requirements for extended deterrence will remain at the heart of the design of the U.S. nuclear posture. Extended deterrence will remain a major barrier to proliferation. Both the size and the specific elements of our forces are driven more by the need to reassure those that we protect under the nuclear umbrella than by U.S. requirements alone.

Even though the overall requirements of our nuclear forces have shrunk some 80 percent since the height of the Cold War and nonetheless the expansion of NATO and -- and the rise of Chinese nuclear forces, significant (if ?) modest have altered somewhat the requirements for our own nuclear forces. Two, even though the most probable source of a weapon landing on American soil increasingly is that of a nuclear terrorist attack, nonetheless the sizing of our own nuclear forces in addition to other elements of our deterrent posture remains driven in large degree by Russia.

Our NATO allies, and most notably, the new members of NATO remain wary of Russia and would eye nervously any sharp reduction of our nuclear forces relative to those of Russia, especially in light of the now greater emphasis by Russia on tactical nuclear weapons.

Consequently, the commission did conclude that we should not engage in unilateral reductions in our nuclear forces and that such reductions should occur only as a result of bilateral negotiations with Russia under a follow-on START agreement. Any such reductions must, of course, be thoroughly discussed with our allies.

Three, our East Asian allies also view with great interest our capabilities relative to the slowly burgeoning Chinese force. Clearly that adds complexity, for example, to the protection of Japan, though that remains a lesser driver with respect to overall numbers.

Still, the time has come to engage Japan in more comprehensive discussions akin to those with our NATO partners in the Nuclear Planning Group. That would also augment the credibility of the Pacific extended deterrent.

Four, the commission has been urged to specify the number of nuclear weapons the United States should have. That is an understandable question, particularly in light of the demands of the appropriations process in the Congress. Nonetheless, it is a mistake to focus unduly on numbers alone without reference to the overall strategic context.

Clearly it would be illogical to provide a number outside the process of negotiation with Russia, given the need to avoid giving away bargaining leverage. In preparation for the Treaty of Moscow, as with all of its predecessors, the composition for our prospective forces was subject to the most rigorous analysis.

Thus it would seem to be unacceptable to go below the numbers specified in that treaty without a similar rigorous analysis of the strategic context, which has not yet taken place. Moreover, as our Russian friends have repeatedly told us, strategic balance is more important than the numbers.

Five, the existence of other nations' nuclear capabilities and the international role that the United States necessarily plays. The commission quickly reached the judgment that the United States must maintain a nuclear deterrent "for the indefinite future," unquote. It must convey not only the capacity, but the will to respond (in necessity ?).

Some members of the commission have expressed the hope that at some future date we might see the worldwide abolition of nuclear weapons. The judgment of the commission, however, has been that the attainment of such a goal would require a transformation of world politics.

President Obama also has expressed that goal -- (inaudible) -- that as long as nuclear weapons exist in the world, the United States must maintain a strong deterrent. We should all bear in mind that abolition of nuclear weapons will not occur outside that transformation of world politics.

Six, we sometimes hear or read the query, "Why are we investing in these capabilities which will never be used?" This is a fallacy. A deterrent, if it is effective, is in use every day. The purpose in sustaining these capabilities is to be sufficiently impressive to avoid their use in the sense of the actual need to deliver weapons to targets. That is the nature of any deterrent, particularly so a nuclear deterrent. It exists to deter major attacks against the United States, its allies and its interests.

Years ago, the role and the details of our nuclear deterrent commanded sustained and high-level national attention. Regrettably today, they do so far less than is necessary. Nonetheless, the role of the deterrent remains crucial. Therefore, I thank this committee for its continued attention to these critical matters.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

REP. SPRATT: Thank you, Dr. Schlesinger.

And I'll start the questions unless there's another member of the panel that would like to have this opportunity to make a statement.

Dr. Foster? (Laughs.)

Let me turn everyone's attention to something that receives too little attention, I think, and that's tactical nuclear weapons. We tend to think, when we talk about SLBMs and ICBMs and heavy lift and MIRVed systems, that these systems, if our principal concern is nonproliferation, may be of bigger danger to us than the larger systems which are subject to deterrence.

In your report you say, "The imbalance of non-strategic nuclear weapons will become more prominent and worrisome as strategic reductions continue and will require new arms control approaches that are assuring to our allies."

Would you explain to us what your worries are about tactical nuclear weapons? Do we have a good count as to these weapons? Are we assured that they are securely held somewhere? Are we satisfied we know what we should know about the universe of nuclear-tipped tactical weapons abroad in the world?

MR. SCHLESINGER: I believe that the Russians have removed, as they said they would, their tactical nuclear weapons to the Ural Mountains. Nonetheless, as the Soviet conventional forces have deteriorated -- as the Russian conventional forces have deteriorated, the Russians have expressed increasing interest doctrinally on reliance on tactical nuclear weapons to protect the vast territories of Russia, which they fear are under potential attack from NATO and, notably, in Siberia, underpopulated Siberia, China. As a consequence, they have maintained not only a doctrine but a sizable number of tactical weapons.

We in the United States have tended to stress strategic weapons because we're reaching overseas. But we have a significant number of nuclear weapons that are tactical here in the United States. Nonetheless, as a result, our weapons are here in North America and the Russians are close to some of our allies in Europe, which causes them to be rather nervous.

So I hope that our negotiators, as they deal with the strategic level, will also look at the total number of nuclear weapons, including tactical, so that there is some kind of balance that is maintained and, in consequence, reassure some of our allies.

REP. SPRATT: Do you think, then, this requires a special approach, different from that of larger systems?

MR. SCHLESINGER: I'm sorry --

REP. SPRATT: For arms control purposes, do we require --

MR. SCHLESINGER: Well, I think that we need to have an inspection system that we can rely on and that we need to have a clear declaration by the Russians where their tactical nuclear weapons are and inspection of those tactical nuclear weapons. The strategic weapons are easier to deal with, because we can count them by overhead reconnaissance.

REP. SPRATT: Dr. Perry?

MR. PERRY: I'll emphasize one of the points that Dr. Schlesinger made, but I mostly want to emphasize the asymmetry between the U.S. position and the Russian position.

The Russians perceive that they need their tactical nuclear weapons to buttress their conventional -- (inaudible) -- their conventional forces. And that (leads ?) them to put a major emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons.

We, on the other hand, could meet our military requirements without any tactical weapons. The reason we keep tactical nuclear weapons is more a political reason, which is because our allies in Europe feel more comfortable when we have weapons deployed in Europe. So we do it to assure the credibility of our extended deterrence to our allies, not because we have a military necessity.

We could meet the real needs of our allies, military needs, with our strategic forces, but they feel much more comfortable if we have forces deployed in Europe. So it's a very different situation. There's great asymmetry between the two. Therefore, as we go into arms control and start to consider tactical nuclear weapons, we'll have to recognize this is going to be a difficult problem because of the asymmetry and the perceived need for tactical weapons between the United States and Russia.

REP. SPRATT: One further question from me, and that is, you -- the commission also found that, quote, "missile defenses are effective against regional nuclear aggressors, including against long-range threats, are a valuable component of our strategic posture."

Would you explain what you meant there? And you went on to say that you would be concerned about actions taken on our part that increase -- that lead to counteractions by Russia and China. Would you elaborate on what you mean there?

MR. PERRY: We were focusing on the role of nuclear weapons -- pardon me -- the role of missile defenses to deter or, if necessary, defend against nuclear weapons in the hands of regional powers; for example, North Korea and Iran. But to the extent we build and deploy such systems, those systems also have some capability against Russia and China.

So our concern here was that we do not want to have a missile defense so extensive and so capable that it threatens the Russian and Chinese deterrent to the extent that they believe then they're going to have to increase their number of missiles deployed.

We do not want our missile defense system to stimulate an increase in offensive missiles to be used against us. That was the point we were trying to make.

Jim, would you like to comment on that?

MR. SCHLESINGER: Just to add one point that there is a distinction between Europe in which some of the nations are relatively indifferent in missile defense and Japan, which has gotten deeply into missile defense.

REP. SPRATT: Thank you very much.

Mr. McHugh.

REP. MCHUGH: Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.

Gentlemen, thank you again for being here.

I'd like to pursue a little bit further for my own edification this issue of deterrents, particularly with respect to our allies. I appreciated Dr. Schlesinger's comments.

Too often, perhaps understandably, when we think about allies and the deterrents that our nuclear umbrella has provided, we think Europe. But there is another theater. And where Japan certainly has its limits as to how many questions they feel they can ask about the nuclear effectiveness or commitment of this nation to continue to provide that umbrella before they strike out on their own.

And the whole objective, it seems to me, of arms limitation -- nuclear proliferation -- is to try to keep those who don't yet have from wanting to get them. I understand the comments about a number. Clearly, we can reduce warheads, but how do we go about partnering with our allies to make sure they still feel we have the structure and the forces necessary to continue to provide that umbrella and deterrents?

Is it through consultation? Is it at some point a mathematical formula -- actual deployments? How do you pursue that, because if you're not successful, then other nations will make themselves a part of the nuclear family, will they not?

MR. SCHLESINGER: Well, no nation that I know of is reassured by mathematical formulas. It will require direct consultation.

In the past, as I indicated in my earlier comments, we have not had those kinds of direct consultations with Japan, which is the country that has perhaps the greatest leaning amongst the 30-odd nations that we have under the umbrella to create its own nuclear force. And therefore, intimate discussions with the Japanese, I think, are mandatory at this stage.

In the past, the Japanese have not really worried about the Soviet nuclear threat. But as the Chinese have increased their capability, they have become increasingly concerned about China; and thus, they want to have direct consultation with us and reassurance from us.

In the case of Europe, some nations are relatively relaxed and then others are nervous. For the most part, given the attitude of the European publics, they would prefer that this whole question of nuclear weapons be left out of the headlines.

REP. MCHUGH: Dr. Perry, any thoughts on consultations?

MR. PERRY: I just would comment that this issue goes back many, many decades. Really, there's nothing new about it.

Back in the late '70s, when I was the undersecretary of Defense, the Soviet Union was deploying their intermediate range missiles in Europe, threatening Western Europe. And we were planning an offset to that -- a deterrent force to that, which we were doing in consultation, of course, with our NATO allies.

And our judgment at the time was that we could provide that offset with what we'd call strategic weapons -- in this case it would be submarine-launched missiles. But it was very, very clear in consultation with allies that although they saw the logic of the argument, they felt it was necessary to have our forces deployed in Europe in order to give them the confidence that our deterrent would be upheld.

And to a certain extent, that issue is still with us today -- even though conditions have changed quite a bit. And so we still see great concern in both Europe and in Asia about the credibility of our extending deterrents. It's important for us to pay attention to their concern and not try to judge whether deterrents (are affected ?) by our standards, but we have to take their standards into account as well.

And the failure to do this -- as suggested by Dr. Schlesinger -- will be that those nations will feel they have to provide their own deterrents. In other words, they'll have to build their own nuclear weapons, so that will lead to a failure of de-proliferation.

REP. MCHUGH: We discussed very briefly the CTBT. I'd just be curious, Dr. Schlesinger -- of course, Dr. Perry, if you'd care to comment -- your view of the future for that treaty should the United States sign on. Obviously, it seems to me at least, there will be a number of nations who will never sign -- or certainly at this point in time have very few incentives to sign. And although the treaty calls for a certain number of nations having to sign before it is binding, there's probably a policy imperative. The United States would almost unilaterally want signing it adhered to it.

What's your opinion on the CTBT?

MR. SCHLESINGER: Well, a number of nations in Western Europe in particular, and the president, have both said that they would like to see the United States ratify and the treaty come into force.

The likelihood of the latter is very low, because all of the nations on annex two must ratify before the treaty comes into force. That includes China, India, Pakistan, Egypt, Israel, Iran and most notably, perhaps, North Korea in this connection.

If we were -- some suggest that American diplomacy can bring them around. I would point out that we have had extended diplomacy with respect to North Korea over nuclear weapons for approaching 20 years, which has not been a signal success. And that if we put pressure on them, we are likely to be asked for a bribe -- to put it bluntly.

I think that -- I think Dr. Perry will point out that there is value, even if the treaty doesn't come into force, for diplomatic reasons. But my own judgment is that the substantive benefits of the treaty are modest, and therefore, I think that roughly half of the members of the commission did not endorse ratification.

MR. PERRY: I will repeat again that I believe that the ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty enhances America's national security whether or not the treaty enters into force.

I've had considerable discussion with leaders all over the world on this question and I'm persuaded that our signing will put substantial pressure on India and Pakistan and China to ratify. And I'd be willing to bet that their ratification will follow ours if we do it in a reasonable time. And that itself will be a substantial benefit to U.S. security.

I do not believe -- I cannot conceive of the circumstances under which North Korea would willingly ratify the treaty and I do not believe it makes any sense for the United States or other nations to be in a position of trying to bribe them to do so. But with or without their signature, I still think this is an enhancement of U.S. security.

REP. MCHUGH: I thank the gentlemen.

Mr. Chairman, I'm going to yield back. Thank you for the sidebar consultation.

I would just note: When our side's turn comes again, I'll be yielding to Mr. Turner, who is the ranking member on Strategic Forces, to lead off the questioning after ours.

And again, I thank the two gentlemen. I think we have a lot of ground to cover on this issue of tactical nuclear weapons and how we approach discussions with our friends, the Russians, et cetera. But I'm sure other members want to talk about that as well. So I'll yield back at this time.

MR. PERRY: Mr. Chairman, could I make one other comment -- relative to the points Mr. McHugh was making?

REP. MCHUGH: He'll say yes. He's a nice man.

MR. PERRY: I wanted to comment on --

REP. SPRATT: Certainly. Certainly, Dr. Perry. We're trying to resolve the problem of who speaks next up here, but you have the floor.

MR. PERRY: Assuming this treaty comes to the Senate for ratification, there will be safeguards on the treaty. We certainly advocate safeguards.

Some of those safeguards will require legislation and funding, and the House will be as much involved in that as the Senate will be. So, I think this is a very important issue for the House.

Certainly the most -- one of the most important safeguards is maintaining the vitality and the strength of our weapons laboratories, and that requires funding, which the House will have to play a major role in.

REP. MCHUGH: Thank you, Doctor.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

REP. SPRATT: Mrs. Sanchez. (No audible response.)

REP. SPRATT: (Off mike.) -- (inaudible) -- go back to Tauscher. I beg your pardon. Mrs. Tauscher.

REP. TAUSCHER: Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Dr. Perry and Dr. Schlesinger, I'd like you to elaborate -- each of you, if you don't mind, a little bit on your recommendations for the National Nuclear Security Administration. About 10 years ago, Mr. Thornberry was the chairman of the panel and I was the ranking member that helped create the National Nuclear Security Administration. It was a little bit of a compromise, to say the least, but we believed that it was very important to get the NNSA out from under what we considered to be a -- (inaudible) -- bureaucracy.

As you know, the Department of Energy regulates refrigerator coolant, and also has the nuclear weapons. It could take quite a wide brainpan to manage all of that and we believe that, for national security reasons, intelligence reasons, and many other reasons, that the weapons labs, and the complex in general, and its budget policies, needed to be elevated in a way that could give it much more standing and much more of a national importance, not just also something that the Department of Energy did.

So, I would really be interested in -- and your talking about in your report, you basically talk about that the NNSA should now report to the Department of Energy, but, effectively, to the president. And if you could expand a little bit on that, I would appreciate it.

MR. SCHLESINGER: As you will recall, in 1985 the Blue-Ribbon Task Force recommended greater autonomy for the nuclear enterprise within the Department of Energy. Congress passed legislation in 1999, after a lag, establishing the NNSA.

The problem is that the NNSA has not escaped the large bureaucracy of the Department of Energy. Instead of really dealing with the NNSA, it is affected by the general counsel's office of the Department of Energy, Environmental Safety and Health, and other elements within the DOE bureaucracy.

And this bureaucratic tendency has trickled down to the NNSA itself. So that everything that is done out there in the labs or in the plants, kind of, gets examined not only by the site office -- the successors to the Operations Office of the past, (but by) the NNSA, and by the Department of Energy, so that the costs keep rising.

And one of our concerns in establishing national security laboratories is that who, elsewhere in the government, wants to pay those operating additional overhead costs, which can be quite excessive. We need to reduce the costs, the non-operational costs of the laboratories and the plants in such a way as to provide some leeway with regard to the total budget. And the Congress, of course, can help in that regard.

With respect to reporting to the Department -- to the president through the secretary of Energy, our intent was to get the DOE bureaucracy out of the way. And we need to have clear-cut lines of authority. Whoever is the head of NNSA must take it on as a task to reduce the kind of bureaucratic interference that has marked these recent years.

REP. TAUSCHER: Dr. Perry, can you also talk about the role that you imagined for the Cabinet officials, that you recommend take on formal roles regarding the NNSA programming budget matters, like the secretary of Defense, secretary of State, secretary of Homeland Security, and the DNI?

MR. PERRY: When we talk about this expanded national security role for the laboratories, it is today performing some of those functions already, but it's doing it on a hit-or-miss basis, from a point of view of funding.

And there's no overall guidance or overall organization how this is done. And, as Dr. Schlesinger has already indicated, the different agencies that fund this are paying for the direct work but they're not paying for the overhead costs of that work.

So, there needs to be a better way of doing that. And our view was that would entail creating a broader responsibility for the laboratories -- well, that was part of the stated mission; and also require some oversight then, on the part of the Defense Department, for example, and the DCI, which have the responsibilities for those programs. And so we imagine that there needs to be some form of a steering group of those various -- (inaudible) --

The secretaries of those various agencies, which provide the oversight and the funding necessary to -- provided to other programs. But, the hit-or-miss program-specific-funding that is done today is not an appropriate way to effectively and appropriately use the great skills that we have in those laboratories. This is just one way of doing it. We're open to other ways of doing it, but there needs to be an approach from a -- we need a fresh approach (or a tailor ?) to that particular set of problems.

REP. TAUSCHER: Thank you.

Dr. Schlesinger, I just want to state the obvious -- and I'm speaking as Congresswoman Tauscher, not somebody that's potentially nominated for another job in the State Department, I'd like to chat with you a little bit about the CTBT.

Since 1993 we've had an Executive Order -- Presidential Executive Order that has put the United States in a place of suspending testing. In 1999, when the CTBT was failed to be ratified, I think there was tremendous concern about Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship. The difference between 1993, 1999 and 2009 is not only a lot of time, but an overwhelming grade of "A" on the success of Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship.

And, effectively, ratifying the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, there is an out that says that if you have a national imperative you can test. So, since we have been living, since 1993 without testing; since the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty ratification allows for the "out," could you talk to me, and explain to us what the hesitancy is, considering that I think we have universal agreement that the Stockpile Stewardship program -- the Science-Based program is enormously successful, and that, in time, since 1993, 1999 and now 2009, I think we have a lot more evidence that the safety, security and reliability of the stockpile has been more than secured by, without testing.

MR. SCHLESINGER: Well, we don't know the last. We have the Stockpile Stewardship program, which has given us some basis for encouragement but, as you know, the directors of the laboratories have pointed out that the stockpile continues to age and that there are greater uncertainties.

The question before us is whether or not the United States should surrender the option to test, given the uncertainties. I might point out that there are other members of this commission who feel more passionately on this subject than do I. But, it was -- this issue has been around, as a dialectical tilting ground, since -- at least since the signing of underground tests moratorium -- test treaty.

A question is whether we're completing something that is in the minds of the proponents of the last 60 years, when it is not of any substantive benefit to the United States. It is, as Bill Perry points out, potential diplomatic advantage, as you will no doubt hear when you arrive in the Department of State.

But, symbolism has a role to play in diplomacy. It is not necessarily the ideal element in judging force posture.

REP. TAUSCHER: Dr. Perry --

MR. SCHLESINGER: Years ago, somebody observed that the CTBT was a bad idea whose time has come.

REP. TAUSCHER: (Laughs.)

MR. SCHLESINGER: And the question that was posed to me the other day by somebody from the laboratory said, each element of that should be examined carefully: Why is it a bad idea, and why has its time come?

REP. TAUSCHER: Thank you, Dr. Schlesinger.

Dr. Perry?

MR. PERRY: I was the secretary of Defense at the time we signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. All these issues were considered at that time. No one in the Department of Defense -- certainly not the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was willing to say this -- signing of this treaty means we never again can conduct tests.

It means we agree not to conduct tests. But the treaty has, as you all know, a provision by which we can withdraw if we see our supreme national interest at stake.

We felt that wasn't quite strong enough at the time, so we added to it, as one of the safeguards, that the -- (inaudible) -- had to certify on a yearly basis the adequacy of the stockpile in (performing ?) the deterrence missions, and that the president, on receiving this, then, if he got a statement that said they were unable to certify it, that was a clear signal where we would withdraw from the treaty and begin testing.

So I don't think it's an issue that we have forever given up our right to test. It's we're giving up our right -- we're simply formalizing in the treaty the agreement we've already made, the policy we've already established not to test. And we still have the -- we will still have, even after signing the treaty, the provision that we can withdraw from it if we see -- (inaudible).

Now, if I thought we were going to have to exercise that withdrawal provision any time in the foreseeable future, I would not be in favor of the treaty. But as I look at what we are doing in the laboratories and on the stockpile stewardship program, the life extension program, the considerable technical capability we have there, I'm comforted that that's not going to happen. That is contingent, though, on the Congress -- and including the House, not just the Senate -- funding adequately the work that goes on at the laboratories.

REP. TAUSCHER: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I yield back.

REP. SPRATT: By unanimous consent, we turn now to Mr. Turner. And after his questions, we will recess momentarily to go to the floor. We have three votes. We beg your indulgence. We'll be back as quickly as possible.

Mr. Turner.

REP. MICHAEL TURNER (R-OH): Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And I want to thank Ranking Member McHugh for recognizing me.

Dr. Perry, Dr. Schlesinger, thank you so much for taking your long legacy of great accomplishment in this field to give some present guidance to Congress.

I'm the ranking member of the Strategic Forces Committee, and I want to recognize our chair's work, our chairman, Ellen Tauscher, on this and her leadership so that we could have this document for Congress to take a look at.

In looking at both your testimony and report, there's one area that I wanted to highlight. Dr. Schlesinger, you said that, in your written testimony, "Why are we investing in these capabilities which will never be used?" And you said, "This is a fallacy. A deterrent, if it is effective, is in use every day."

And then I look at the report and its writings in the executive summary, and the report says, "So long as it continues to rely on nuclear deterrence, the United States requires a stockpile of nuclear weapons that are safe, secure, reliable, and whose threatened use in military conflict would be credible."

You go on to cite the controversy that occurred over the reliable replacement warhead discussion and indicate there appears to be some confusion as to what we need to do and how we go forward. And then you conclude with something to the effect of "So long as modernization proceeds within the framework of existing U.S. policy, it should encounter minimum political difficulty."

Well, I thank you for those words, because you've contributed a great deal of insight with your report as to how to get over the issue of political difficulty, because this is an area that requires congressional attention and congressional investment, even if we all have the goal of the future elimination of nuclear weapons. That investment of that strategic and important deterrent is echoed throughout your report.

Another theme in your report on this posture review is the issue of strategic balance. And I have here some of the quotes that you've given in the report about Russia's strategic forces modernization. For example, you say, "Current strategic modernization program include various elements. Russia is at work on a new intercontinental ballistic missile, a new ballistic missile submarine, and the associated new missile and warhead, a new short-range ballistic missile, and low-yield tactical nuclear weapons." That was on page 12.

And you say, "Russia's military leaders are putting more emphasis on non-strategic nuclear forces, on tactical use in the battlefield," also on page 12, and you indicate, "Senior Russian experts have reported that Russia has 3,800 operational tactical nuclear warheads." And you expound by saying, "The United States does not know definitely the numbers of nuclear weapons in the Russian arsenal."

I'd like, if you would, both of you, to speak for just a moment on the need of strategic balance as we look to Russia's efforts of modernization. I know we are all currently focused on Iran and North Korea. But what should we look to with what the Russians are doing and how that might be some impetus for us to look for investments in our own nuclear complex? Dr. Perry?

MR. PERRY: I would say, first of all, Mr. Turner, that Russia's needs, security needs, are very different from the United States' security needs. The most important element of the difference is the asymmetry in our conventional forces. We have probably the most powerful conventional forces in the world. Russia perceives, and I think correctly, that their conventional forces are quite weak, particularly relative to the neighborhood in which they live. So they have a totally different need for tactical weapons than have we.

Having said that, when we consider any arms agreements with them, all of our commission believes at some level of reduction we should not go lower until or unless their tactical weapons are considered in the equation, because there is, in terms of maintaining our extended deterrence, the perception in the minds of our allies that it's going to be very important on whether they believe we can continue to maintain that extended deterrence. And if they see an overwhelming superiority of tactical nuclear weapons in the United States relative to -- in Russia relative to the United States, then we will lose some credibility of deterrence.

So, indeed, the need is very different between Russia and the United States. But at some level, we have to consider their tactical weapons very seriously in any balance.

REP. TURNER: Dr. Schlesinger, on the issue of modernization and our deterrent?

MR. SCHLESINGER: I think that Dr. Perry has covered it to a substantial degree. We don't need the same number of tactical nuclear weapons that the Russians have. We do not need to match them.

In the strategic area, we do need to match them, because the Russians fear that they cannot defend their vast territories against a hypothetical NATO attack, which they talk about publicly, and engagement with China, which they talk about privately, given the underpopulation of Siberia.

So they feel a need, and we do not have to match them. But we have to be responsive to the requirements of our allies. That involves the dual-capable aircraft which are in Europe at the present time, which some of our military folks have thought are cost- ineffective and should be removed. We must not remove those capabilities in Europe without careful consultation with our allies.

The Japanese have different requirements that they have expressed to us with regard to the specific components of local nuclear forces, and they have to be taken into account in a different context. But overall, we do not need to match the Russians in terms of the aggregate number of tactical nuclear weapons.

REP. TURNER: Gentlemen, thank you.

REP. SPRATT: We've got about three minutes to make it to the floor. We'll be back as soon as we possibly can. We appreciate your indulgence. And when we come back, Ellen Tauscher will take the gavel because I have a meeting with the speaker.

Thank you again for your participation and for your report.

(Recess.)

REP. ELLEN O. TAUSCHER (D-CA): (Strikes gavel.) The committee will be in order. At this time, I'm happy to yield five minutes to the gentleman from Arkansas, Mr. Snyder.

REP. VIC SNYDER (D-AR): Thank you. You know, if the timing was just right, Madame Chair, you could call the committee to order and then run down there and testify. But I'd just time this confirmation stuff just right but I guess -- (inaudible, laughter).

Thank you all, Mr. -- Dr. Schlesinger and Dr. Perry, for -- for being here. I -- I appreciate your patience with us as we went -- went to vote. I think it's apparent to those that have studied your report and to those of us that have been more peripheral in our study of the report that -- that it's a very serious compilation of these very important issues.

I want to ask more, I guess, of a diplomatic question. It seems to me that the timing of your report is a good one in terms of the relationship between the United States and Russia -- that, I don't know, in my amateurism I have sensed in the last six or eight months or so that there seems to be a renewed interest in -- in the relationship which, I think, over the last couple of decades we Americans probably haven't done enough to cultivate.

But it seems like these issues that you have brought up in all their complexity and detail are very -- an excellent starting point for a relationship between a new administration and leadership in Russia, and I'd like to hear you both comment on -- on that question in terms of a broader relationship between the United States and Russia.

MR. SCHLESINGER: I think that's a very important point, Mr. Snyder. The -- I see the -- that we have a major opportunity now in forming a new relationship with Russia. We want the -- I think what Vice President Biden referred to as -- as pressing the reset button, which I would call -- being computer terminology, rebooting.

I have talked with nearly every major leader in Russia about this in the last two months -- the president, the foreign minister, the national security adviser. They are all very anxious to do that. So this is a great opportunity. I must say, though, it's not an opportunity we foresaw when we were working on the report.

This has only developed in the last few months, and by the time it developed our report was already pretty much put together. In the report, we urged working to -- to establish such a relationship, and by the time we put the final words down in the report we were talking as if there was -- that was a great opportunity to do that. But we did not know that that opportunity was going to exist six months ago, eight months ago. So it is a big opportunity though.

REP. SNYDER: Good.

MR. SCHLESINGER: We're going to have our ups and downs with Russia but the important thing is to focus on the priorities. With Russia, our priorities are dealing with terrorism, dealing with proliferation, and dealing with arms control, and that other issues that come up -- for example, the controversy over Georgia -- should not mislead us about what is central or should be central in our relationship. If one can object to a tenor of American foreign policy, it is a tendency to start chasing rabbits off the main trail rather than focus on what is central to our relationship. That applies to Russia, it applies to China, and to others.

REP. SNYDER: And I'm sorry -- I left for a while and so you may have discussed this but in the -- the report you talk about the Nunn- Lugar funds and that additional funding for Nunn-Lugar would be money well spent, and I should probably ask the chair because she would probably be able to answer my question but I'll ask you.

I -- I have sometimes heard the argument over the last several years as somebody who's been very supportive of this program that it's not been just a funding issue -- that, in fact, it has been, you know, are projects ready to use the funding. Did you -- but you all concluded that the primary obstacle was -- was funding to further progress. Is that accurate? Or would you amplify on your statements about Nunn-Lugar please?

MR. PERRY: I think two things are necessary to make progress -- further progress in -- in the Nunn-Lugar. The first is the funding. That's a necessary condition and also requires a Russia that's -- that's motivated to fully cooperate. And so it gets back to your first point that -- that we seem to be developing a new relationship with Russia and that new relationship should enable us to cooperate or cooperate effectively on things that can -- that can be done to reduce the risk of proliferation.

I don't believe that proliferation is -- is at the top list of their priority of things that need to be done now in dealing with proliferation but it -- it is on their list, and therefore we ought to be able to find some way of cooperating in that field, if we can get other things off the table. I believe myself that the main factor in souring the relationship between the United States and Russia in the last couple years has had nothing really to do with its nuclear field as such. It's had to do with the NATO expansion and it's had to do with the dispute over Georgia. But if we can get those issues resolved or at least set aside then we ought to be able to deal effectively and cooperatively with them in -- in the nuclear field.

REP. SNYDER: I -- I think missile defense has probably been one of the issues that's been -- made the relationship difficult too. Thank you, Madame Chair.

MR. SCHLESINGER: Mr. Snyder, new relationship or old relationship, Nunn-Lugar overall has been a substantial success. Nothing works perfectly. Of course, funding is not the only issue. It's difficult dealing with the Russians because of security problems. But if you look over the years, their nuclear weapons are now reasonably well protected.

They haven't done as well on fissile material. We would hope that they will do better. But the fact that their nuclear weapons are under good security is an accomplishment that would not have occurred without Nunn-Lugar.

REP. TAUSCHER: I'm happy to yield five minutes for the gentleman from Maryland, Mr. Bartlett.

REP. ROSCOE BARTLETT (R-MD): Thank you. Dr. Schlesinger, when you said in your testimony that a deterrent, if it is effective, is in use every day, I remembered the emotional response I had when I was privileged to spend an overnight on one of the big Boomer subs, and standing there beside that missile tube and the captain said, "You know, if we ever have to use one of these we will have failed."

Thank you for reminding us how important they are. I think in practice everybody knows the rules of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty -- if you don't have nuclear weapons you absolutely certainly cannot have nuclear weapons until you have them, and then it's okay and you're a member of the club. Witness India and Pakistan, North Korea, Iran tomorrow. Certainly, the threat is proliferating.

I think that there's a very high probability that our anti- ballistic missile shield in Alaska will never be used. The only country I think that would use -- to come over the Pole today is Russia and they would very quickly overwhelm our system there. There's no other country I believe -- China maybe tomorrow -- but no other country that's going to come over the Pole, no other country that's going to launch from their soil.

We would certainly detect that and we would vaporize them and they know that. I think that if a nuclear weapon is delivered by missile on us it will certainly come from the sea. They will then sink the ship and they will believe there are no fingerprints. You may argue that there is a signature in the weapon or a signature in the missile that you could detect. I'm not sure they believe that and I'm not sure we would be certain that it wasn't a non-state actor who was doing that so our response would be very difficult to -- to predict. Since this is true and we have large coasts, how are we going to deter that kind of an attack and how could we protect ourselves from it?

MR. PERRY: Mr. Bartlett, let me take one component of your question which has to do with North Korea. It's not the whole thing -- story you're talking about but it is an important part of that story. I do not believe the United States should accept North Korea as a nuclear power, and I believe that the U.S. government should make every effort to roll back nuclear weapons they have and I think there's some possibility we can be successful in that.

But the possibility of success depends on being able to apply what I think could reasonably be called coercive diplomacy. For coercive diplomacy to have a chance of success, it's going to require the cooperation of several other key nations, most importantly China. So the key to, as I see it, having any success in rolling back the North Korean nuclear program is finding a way of getting a common strategy with China on how to do that. Because while we supply some of the -- have some of the positive incentives for North Korea in -- in, or more importantly, South Korea and Japan have some of the positive incentives to North Korea, all of the negative incentives short of military action are in the hands of China. And so we have to have some cooperation from China to make that happen. Thank you.

REP. BARTLETT: Jim?

MR. SCHLESINGER: Bill has outlined a world of hope about nonproliferation. And I hope that he's correct. (Inaudible) -- I'm sorry. Bill has outlined some hope with regard to nonproliferation. I hope that he's correct.

As you have indicated --

REP. TAUSCHER: Dr. Schlesinger, your microphone --

DR. SCHLESINGER: Oh, I see. (Inaudible) -- didn't turn it on.

Bill has -- third time -- outlined hope with regard to nonproliferation. I hope he is correct. Needless to say, I worry about the North Koreas and Irans of this world. But our record that you mentioned at the outset of your comments about India and Pakistan are now part of the club, our overall record over the last 60 years has not been awe-inspiring. We attempted to deflect Israel. We were not particularly hard-working at that, but we were not successful. We attempted to deflect France, and, of course, as you mentioned, India and Pakistan.

So we must work hard on seeing whether, in this new environment, nonproliferation becomes a higher priority for many of the countries of the world. But we must also recognize that it is not a certainty that we will be successful. And the -- I think that's sufficient.

REP. BARTLETT: Thank you very much. I remain concerned about the challenge of deterring nations that would attack us from the sea without any notions to where it came from. We have huge coasts on both sides. I'm not sure how we protect ourselves there. I think this is a vulnerability that warrants considerable attention.

Thank you all very much for your service and your testimony.

REP. TAUSCHER: Thank you, Mr. Bartlett.

I'm happy to yield five minutes to the gentlewoman from California, Ms. Sanchez.

REP. LORETTA SANCHEZ (D-CA): Thank you, Madame Chair. And this is really a great day for us to arrive at this point after so many years of working on this issue. And it's due largely in part, I believe, to your leadership. So it's pretty exciting to be here together doing this.

Gentlemen, thank you, both of you doctors, for being before us and for all of your service to our nation.

I think that one of the biggest threats the world faces today is the terrorist groups like al Qaeda seeking and working to obtain nuclear weapons. And the IAEA has proposed strengthening the NPT safeguards to enhance protection of fissile material, but it's not getting the support that it needs for their proposals.

So my question to you would be, considering -- what should we do -- what should we do to try to prevent terrorists from obtaining these nuclear weapons? In particular, what are the reasons that the IAEA is not getting support for the proposals it put forward on this?

MR. PERRY: I believe that the proposals of the IAEA for strengthening -- the so-called additional protocols for strengthening their ability to inspect, for example, are well-founded and would have been very -- would have enhanced the whole world's security had they been accepted.

Secondly, I have not yet given up on those proposals, something like those proposals being accepted.

To try to get to your question, what is the reason the nations have turned that down, it's not a very happy reason, but nations -- Iran and other nations have been able to make the case that they have a right to enriched uranium, they have a right to reprocess plutonium, and that nuclear powers like the United States, Russia and so on, should not be trying to abridge that right. They have put it as an issue of unfairness.

REP. SANCHEZ: So sort of a sovereign right --

MR. PERRY: A sovereign right.

REP. SANCHEZ: -- and who are we to have it and not they.

MR. PERRY: And that, to my mind, is a fallacious issue, but it's an issue which has gained quite a lot of resonance among 60 or 70 countries, non-nuclear countries, who have been swayed by that argument. I think we need to be much more effective in addressing that argument. It is not -- when they join the NPT, their rights come along with obligations. And those obligations, of course, have to do with not taking any actions that would use the facilities and equipment and technology that have been given them to move towards nuclear weapons.

So this debate is not yet over, and I think we should be much more effective in pursuing the move to get support for the additional protocols with IAEA. Otherwise the move to contain the uranium enrichment and protocol will be lost, and the probability of a nuclear weapon falling into the hands of terrorists is greatly increased.

REP. SANCHEZ: Doctor, do you have anything to add?

MR. SCHLESINGER: Well, we've had a somewhat checkered -- we, the United States, have had a somewhat checkered career with the IAEA. Unfortunately, we have allowed in recent years for our relations to deteriorate, which is a mistake. The IAEA is an independent body. It has been influenced by the United States effectively in the past; less so today.

I hope, with the change of certain personalities, both in the administration and at the IAEA, that those relationships can be restored and that the United States can have an improved relationship.

Unfortunately, in the eyes of many people, the IAEA is just another part of the United Nations, which many don't like. The fact of the matter is that the IAEA has been and potentially will be a very effective part of nonproliferation and American foreign policy and that we ought not to allow personal estrangements to affect our overall support.

On a broader issue, going back to the Atoms for Peace program, 1956, it is my personal judgment that that was based upon the premise -- and I think Bill may have covered this -- it was based upon the premise that those who received technical information under Atoms for Peace had also accepted and embraced nonproliferation. If they fail to do that, they are not entitled to technical information, as in the case of Iran.

REP. SANCHEZ: Thank you.

My last question. Secretary Gates has stated that currently the U.S. is the only declared nuclear power that is neither modernizing its nuclear arsenal nor has the capability to produce a new nuclear warhead, and has called on the modernization of nuclear security complex and the stockpile itself.

I agree with President Obama and Secretary Gates that as long as nuclear weapons exist, the United States needs to maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal. However, I'm concerned by what exactly maintaining an effective and modernized arsenal entails and how it would be perceived by the international community.

So my question to the two of you is, what is the commission's recommendation for the most efficient way to maintain a credible, safe, secure and reliable deterrent? And with the comments of Secretary Gates, what has been your knowledge of what the rest of the international community has said to the fact that we might want to start back up?

MR. PERRY: A major section of the report goes into that in quite a lot of detail. I'll try to summarize the main points from it.

An important key is maintaining robust, healthy, vigorous weapons laboratories. And related to that is a strong stockpile stewardship program and effective life extension program.

As we proceed -- but as our weapons continue to age, we may find that the things that they've done in the past to keep the credibility of our deterrent may not be adequate. And so I believe we should be open to -- as we take each new weapon into its life extension program, we should be open to a variety of approaches on how that should be done.

If it can be done through the life extension program techniques in the past, it should be done that way. If it requires mining other weapons for the components to get that reliability, we could do it that way. But if it involves a new design, I think we should be open to doing that also. The decision should be based on the technical necessity, not on a political judgment.

REP. SANCHEZ: Thank you, Doctor.

Doctor, do you have a comment to that?

MR. SCHLESINGER: I think that we ought to drop phrases like "modernization" and "new weapons" from our vocabulary and that we just talk about refurbishment, maintenance of the stockpile.

Some of these weapons are aging. As Bill mentioned, we need to have life-extension systems. We ought not to be arguing about modernization which have created poor clouds and light. And if we can get over what have been some unnecessary quarrels from the past, we would be far better off.

REP. SANCHEZ: Thank you, Doctor.

Thank you, Madame Chair, for your indulgence.

REP. TAUSCHER: Thank you, Mrs. Sanchez.

I'm happy to yield five minutes to the gentleman from Colorado, Mr. Coffman.

REP. MIKE COFFMAN (R-CO): Thank you, Madame Chairman.

One question for both of you, and that is, to what extent are we still relying on the mutual assured destruction doctrine? And do you think that missile defense systems or to what extent missile defense systems have a stabilizing or destabilizing impact on security?

MR. SCHLESINGER: You're going to (book ?) that one to me, Bill. With regard to mutual assured destruction, that has declined and declined substantially in importance. I do not expect that the Russians are prepared to attack us. And I do not expect that we would need to respond with a full strike. I think that both sides have learned from the past that a lot of our rhetoric got out of hand. So we are going to maintain a assured destruction capability as a hedge, as Bill might say, against the possibility, however remote it may be, that the Russians would engage in a strike against the United States so as to curtail them. But I think that that possibility is vastly remote.

With respect to the problems of missile defense, I think that we have to recognize that neither Russia or China are going to be put off by an American missile defense. They have already demonstrated a capacity of maneuverable warheads, penetration (aids ?) against such a defense, and they can penetrate it.

Years ago, going back to the 1960s when the Soviet Union deployed the missile defense around Moscow, Secretary McNamara said, no, we are not going to try and create a damage-limiting capability, we are not going to have a missile defense of our own. We are going to use offensive weapons to penetrate that defense. That was our strategy then, and that would be the strategy of Russia or China if they thought that we had a thick missile defense.

And as a consequence, there is always this interaction with sophisticated nuclear powers that a missile defense that worries them will simply lead to an expansion of their offensive forces, which is something that we do not want to see.

MR. PERRY: And I associate myself with the answer that Dr. Schlesinger just gave. Same answer.

REP. COFFMAN: Thank you, gentlemen. Does the success of mutually assured destruction assume that we're dealing with rational nation states?

MR. PERRY: Yes.

REP. COFFMAN: Would you classify Iran as a rational nation state?

MR. PERRY: Yes, I would. I can think of many other instances where it did not apply, particularly with a terrorist attack. But everyone can come to their own judgment about how rational Iran is. My own belief is that they understand that if they attack the United States, their country would be destroyed. And they are not seeking suicide.

REP. COFFMAN: Is North Korea a rational nation state?

MR. PERRY: I think yes to that also and for the same reasons. I do not think the regime of North Korea is seeking suicide.

MR. SCHLESINGER: In my view, we hear irrational statements from the president of Iran. Whether or not he completely believes them or whether he is engaged in stirring up domestic support for his position in the run-up to the election or whatever, the supreme leader in Iran maintains control and it's not the president of Iran, who has, from time to time, been pulled back from some of his bold statements by other Iranians.

I worry about the degree of control that the Iranian government has over the Iranian guards who express flamboyant statements to exceed those of the president of Iran. And I think that one of the things that we ought to be doing in our own deterrent policy is to make sure that we know where the guard's core (basings ?) are and, in the event of trouble, that they get wiped out.

REP. COFFMAN: Thank you, Madame Chairman.

Thank you, gentlemen.

REP. : Mr. Coffman, I'm going to yield to Mr. Langevin for five minutes, the gentleman from Rhode Island.

REP. JAMES R. LANGEVIN (D-RI): Thank you, Madame Chair.

Dr. Schlesinger, Dr. Perry, thank you for your testimony here today and the fine work you've done on this report.

If I could go back to the discussion just a minute about the role of missile defense and, in particular, relations with China and Russia. The commission had found that missile defense was effective against regional nuclear threats, including against limited long-range threats, our valuable component of U.S. strategic posture. And you recommend the United States should ensure that its actions do not lead Russia or China to take actions that increase the threats to the United States and its allies and friends. Can you expand on that discussion a little more about the balance of missile defense before it provokes Russia and China to take actions because we've gone too far with a strong missile defense program? Can you talk about the role that missile defense would play in achieving that objective, the strategic stability that the commission emphasized throughout the report? And is there a way, by the way, to enlist Russia and China's support for a missile defense system so that it would protect us against either accidental missile launches or an irrational actor who would launch (something ?)?

MR. PERRY: Well, a system to provide defense against a very limited Iranian capability should look very different from a system designed to defend against a Russian larger-scale missile attack. Therefore, we ought to be able to have one without threatening the other.

Moreover, to the extent we're focused on defense against Iran, a nuclear missile in Iran is actually a greater threat to Russia than a nuclear missile against the United States. And there ought to be some way of not only communicating with Russia on this problem but maybe even cooperating and providing that defense. And to the extent you have that communication and even the possibility of cooperation, then there should be no basis for the Russians increasing or expanding their missile program to try to offset this missile defense which, in any event, is not directed against them. But it does require good communication with the Russians.

REP. LANGEVIN: Can I ask -- if I could just interject there. What I find troubling, of course, is that when the previous administration took steps in the process of a missile defense system somewhere in Europe, the Russians found that very provocative and it clearly increased tensions between the United States and Russia. Is there no way to bring them to the table to support a limited missile defense system?

MR. PERRY: Well, I think the first step in getting that issue resolved is very close communication with the Russians, which would start off with a joint threat assessment, we and the Russians both looking at what Iran is doing, together, assessing what the threat is and what should be done about that. As I say again, they're at least as much a threat to Russia as they are to the United States. And if we are working together on this issue, then it should not morph into an issue in which the system is seen as posing a threat to Russia. I believe this is a solvable problem. And based on my own discussion with Russians over the last two or three months, I think we are probably already on the way to getting that problem solved.

MR. SCHLESINGER: There has been discussions over the course of the last 30 or 40 years about unauthorized launches, alternatively accidental launches. I think that a missile defense for either China or Russia, clearly directed against that remote possibility, would be acceptable to them. What would not be acceptable is a degree of deployment of missile defenses that clearly undermines their own deterrence.

Now, there's been a good deal of unnecessary talk about our deployment in Poland and in the Czech Republic. It seems to me that we decided to deploy before the Iranian's threat really had developed. But the most important thing is, in the eyes of the Russians, they profess that this is a threat to their own deterrence, and they go on and make speeches on that subject. The fact of the matter is they know full well that it is not a threat to their deterrence. And they say privately, why in God's name did you deploy in Poland and the Czech Republic? If you had deployed in France or Britain or Germany, we would not have this problem, but you are provoking us by deploying in former satellites of the Soviet Union, and we regard that as provocative.

I think that that might have been avoided by the conversations with the Russians early on.

REP. LANGEVIN: Thank you, both, for your answers, your testimony today and your invaluable service to our country. Thank you.

REP. TAUSCHER: Thanks, Mr. Langevin.

I'm happy to yield five minutes to the gentleman from New Mexico, Mr. Heinrich.

REP. MARTIN HEINRICH (D-NM): Dr. Perry, Dr. Schlesinger, I want to thank you for being here today and for all the work the commission did.

Gentlemen, the commission concluded on page 62 that, quote, "The intellectual infrastructure is also in serious trouble. A major cause is the recent and projected decline in the resources," unquote. The report went on to say that if funding for the NNSA does not increase, that the agency will be unable to transform the weapons complex, perform the necessary life-extension work and sustain the scientific base of the weapons program. Indeed, the report points out that the NNSA is already planning to reduce lab budgets by 20 to 30 percent, regardless of the impact on scientific capability and without having even studied that impact.

Recognizing that you believe that a funding study should be performed, I'd like to ask, did the commission reach any consensus on the level of resources that should be allocated in the short run to NNSA to ensure that these three key objectives can be achieved?

MR. PERRY: The short answer to your question is no, we have not done a detailed cost analysis. We have reached a clear judgment that it was a mistake to proceed with this decrease in the intellectual capital of the laboratories. Without any question, I add to that my own personal judgment that we should restore it to previous levels. That can be done either by increasing the overall budget for NNSA or by time-phasing out some of the physical infrastructure changes to be made, and we gave a set of priorities on how that might be done. So without question, we have to put first priority of maintaining the intellectual capital at the -- (inaudible) -- laboratories.

MR. SCHLESINGER: The first point, of course, is do no harm. And given the prospective budget levels, the labs are in for a 20 and 30 percent cut which would do damage. So we need to sustain at least the present level.

The problem that we have there is that the planned infrastructure for many years has been starved in order to preserve the laboratories. And now that infrastructure needs to be replaced. And against a level budget, all that we can do, in the eyes of NNSA, is to reduce the funding for the laboratories. We think that that is a mistake. I think that you have to break out the restoration of the metallurgical lab at Los Alamos, separate from the funding for the labs.

Now, I would hope that there would be a careful analysis of how much money is required to sustain that intellectual capability, not this year, not next year but over the decade ahead. And we have not done that. I don't know whether we have the resources to do that in the commission, but it needs to be done in a serious way, otherwise one faces these kinds of arbitrary cuts that, in this case, will damage the intellectual capital at a time that it is deteriorating simply because of the aging of those who have worked, done this work in the laboratories for many years and who are now retiring.

MR. PERRY: One other comment I would make is that the intellectual human capital, if we continue on the process of reducing the funding for the laboratories and personnel at the laboratories, and we lose more lab personnel, that is an irreversible move. It took us decades to build up that human capital, and it will take us many more decades to try to restore it. So it's a very serious concern.

REP. HEINRICH: Would you have any comments on the consequences of not funding the national security labs on the potential for, you know, future arms reductions and negotiations?

MR. PERRY: One point I would make, I have testified to this committee that I strongly support the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. That support is contingent on my mind in maintaining the strong intellectual capital at the laboratories. Thank you.

REP. HEINRICH: Thank you, both.

Dr. Schlesinger.

MR. SCHLESINGER: We have repeatedly made the point that one of the purposes of our posture is to provide reassurance to the allies who depend upon us. And to the extent that they watch the deterioration of our intellectual capital at the laboratories, their confidence in us diminishes and the willingness of some to develop their own nuclear capabilities may increase.

The overall impressiveness of the U.S. nuclear establishment is part of what maintains stability in the international environment.

REP. HEINRICH: Thank you, both. I yield back.

REP. : Thank you, Mr. Heinrich.

Dr. Perry, Dr. Schlesinger, members of the commission, the United States Institute of Peace and staff that have worked so hard on this, let me tell you that this document that you have worked on is one of the finest I think I have ever seen and far beyond meets my expectations when we created this commission two years ago.

Let me thank you for your significant and extraordinary pedigrees that you have brought forward. You have done extraordinary service for this committee, for the Congress and for the American people. Let me thank you for your patriotism. And some of you have been in the service of this country all of your adult lives, and I will tell you that for all of the work that you have done, this, I think, is a fantastic culmination.

I will tell the American people and my constituents the most impressive thing about this is that not only is it so important and timely but it is readable. And I really commend this to average Americans who are interested in understanding where we are on this issue. When I met with you the first time, one of the things I asked you for was a narrative for the American people, for us to be able to lift this above partisan politics and ideology to a place where average Americans can understand exactly where we are, exactly what the threats are, exactly what our opportunities are and to really (lever ?) the time of a new administration, a time when we have a nuclear posture treaty review, when we have a new nuclear posture review coming out, nonproliferation treaty review, potential for a CTBT, all of these things coming together in this extraordinary time.

And I think that you have given a road map by an all-star team. And I hope that we can keep this team together, and perhaps we'll find more work for you to do in the not-too-distant future. But thank you very much for your service, and the hearing is adjourned.

MR. PERRY: Thank you very much.

REP. TAUSHCER: Dr. Schlesinger.

MR. SCHLESINGER: Madame, you are far too modest. Think of this as your baby.

REP. TAUSCHER: (Laughs.) My baby, by the way, is graduating from high school and is going to Bucknell University to play Division I volleyball. (Laughter.) Thank you very much.

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